Is one of the Fundaments of Unified Growth Theory Missing? The Child Quality-Quantity Tradeoff in England, 1600-2012

In England in 1800 a profound change occurred that ushered in an important component in the regime of modern economic growth. In pre-industrial England, from 1250 to 1800, the rich produced many more surviving children than the poor. From 1800 to 1875 there was no association between wealth and net fertility. And after 1875 wealth became strongly negatively associated with net fertility. Why this change? Using measures of wealth, socio-economic status, and probate rates of sons 1500-1920 the paper tests whether we can explain this through emergence of a quality-quantity tradeoff in children among the rich only after 1800. Conclusive evidence awaits more observations, but the suggestions are that there was little sign of the emergence of such a Beckerian regime only post 1800, even though the years 1800-75 are ideal ones to observe in an unbiased way such a tradeoff.